How our win probabilities work

The win, draw and loss percentages on Matchday come from a simple, transparent statistical model. They are estimates built only from results already played this season — no betting odds, and no human opinion.

The idea

For every upcoming league match we estimate how many goals each side is likely to score, then work out how likely each scoreline is, and add those up into home win, draw and away win.

1. Attack and defence strength. From the current league table we take each team's goals scored and conceded per game and compare them with the league average. A team that scores more than average has an attack rating above 1; one that concedes more than average has a weak defence rating above 1.
2. Early-season caution. With few games played, numbers swing wildly. We blend each team's record with the league average, as if five average games had also been played, so one big result doesn't distort the picture.
3. Expected goals. A team's expected goals in a match = league average goals × its attack rating × the opponent's defence rating. The home side gets a modest boost (about 10%) and the away side a matching reduction, reflecting home advantage.
4. Scoreline probabilities. We model each side's goals with a Poisson distribution, the standard choice for low-count events like goals, and combine the two across scorelines from 0–0 up to 8–8.
5. Result probabilities. Adding up the scorelines where the home side wins, where it's level, and where the away side wins gives the three percentages shown.

What it doesn't know

The model ignores injuries, suspensions, line-ups, fixture congestion, motivation and the strength of the opposition faced so far. It is a baseline, not a prophecy — upsets are a normal part of football. The figures refresh once a day after the league tables update.

Not betting advice

These probabilities are for information and entertainment. Matchday does not offer betting or gambling services and nothing here is a recommendation to place a bet.

International matches

For national-team matches that provider predictions are available for, we show the percentages and comparison figures supplied by API-Football, clearly labelled as coming from that source.