Bundesliga title race
Title, top-four and relegation odds · updated 11 October 2026
Borussia Dortmund are the favourites for the Bundesliga title at 35%. The realistic contenders are Borussia Dortmund (35%), SC Freiburg (27%), FC Bayern München (18%) and Bayer 04 Leverkusen (10%).
The top-four race is still open: Borussia Dortmund 83%, SC Freiburg 78%, FC Bayern München 71%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 57%.
At the bottom, the biggest relegation risks are Borussia Mönchengladbach >99%, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 71%, 1. FC Union Berlin 38%, SC Paderborn 07 36%.
Odds for every team
| Team | Pts | P | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 13 | 5 | 35% | 83% | <1% |
| SC Freiburg | 10 | 4 | 27% | 78% | <1% |
| FC Bayern München | 11 | 5 | 18% | 71% | <1% |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 10 | 5 | 10% | 57% | <1% |
| RB Leipzig | 9 | 5 | 4% | 37% | <1% |
| SV Werder Bremen | 8 | 5 | 3% | 21% | <1% |
| FC Augsburg | 8 | 5 | 2% | 21% | 1% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 5 | 1% | 8% | 2% |
| SV 07 Elversberg | 7 | 5 | <1% | 10% | 1% |
| Hamburger SV | 6 | 5 | <1% | 4% | 7% |
| FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 4 | <1% | 5% | 4% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 5 | <1% | 2% | 6% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 5 | <1% | 1% | 15% |
| 1. FC Köln | 4 | 4 | <1% | 1% | 18% |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 4 | 5 | <1% | <1% | 36% |
| 1. FC Union Berlin | 4 | 5 | <1% | <1% | 38% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | 71% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0 | 4 | <1% | <1% | >99% |
How this works: each remaining match is simulated 500 times, using every team's points per game so far with a small home-advantage adjustment; the percentages are how often a team finished in that position. “Bottom 3” is the three lowest places in every league, whatever the league's real relegation rules. These are statistical estimates, not betting advice. More on our models.
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