Brazil Série A title race
Title, top-four and relegation odds · updated 11 October 2026
CR Flamengo are the favourites for the Brazil Série A title at 60%. The realistic contenders are CR Flamengo (60%) and SE Palmeiras (39%).
The top-four race is still open: Fluminense FC 73%, CA Paranaense 66%, Cruzeiro EC 37%, EC Bahia 16%.
At the bottom, the biggest relegation risks are Chapecoense AF >99%, Clube do Remo 95%, Grêmio FBPA 44%, SC Internacional 21%.
Odds for every team
| Team | Pts | P | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CR Flamengo | 61 | 29 | 60% | >99% | <1% |
| SE Palmeiras | 60 | 29 | 39% | >99% | <1% |
| Fluminense FC | 51 | 29 | 1% | 73% | <1% |
| Cruzeiro EC | 48 | 29 | <1% | 37% | <1% |
| CA Paranaense | 50 | 29 | <1% | 66% | <1% |
| EC Bahia | 46 | 29 | <1% | 16% | <1% |
| CA Mineiro | 44 | 29 | <1% | 6% | <1% |
| Santos FC | 42 | 29 | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| São Paulo FC | 39 | 30 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Coritiba FBC | 38 | 29 | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| RB Bragantino | 37 | 29 | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| EC Vitória | 36 | 30 | <1% | <1% | 4% |
| Botafogo FR | 35 | 29 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| CR Vasco da Gama | 35 | 29 | <1% | <1% | 5% |
| Mirassol FC | 33 | 29 | <1% | <1% | 12% |
| SC Corinthians Paulista | 32 | 29 | <1% | <1% | 14% |
| SC Internacional | 31 | 29 | <1% | <1% | 21% |
| Grêmio FBPA | 30 | 29 | <1% | <1% | 44% |
| Clube do Remo | 25 | 30 | <1% | <1% | 95% |
| Chapecoense AF | 18 | 28 | <1% | <1% | >99% |
How this works: each remaining match is simulated 500 times, using every team's points per game so far with a small home-advantage adjustment; the percentages are how often a team finished in that position. “Bottom 3” is the three lowest places in every league, whatever the league's real relegation rules. These are statistical estimates, not betting advice. More on our models.
Full Brazil Série A table, fixtures and top scorers → · Latest round-up →