Ligue 1 title race
Title, top-four and relegation odds · updated 11 October 2026
AS Monaco FC are the favourites for the Ligue 1 title at 34%. The realistic contenders are AS Monaco FC (34%), Lille OSC (23%), Stade Rennais FC 1901 (14%), Paris Saint-Germain FC (9%), Olympique Lyonnais (8%) and Paris FC (7%).
The top-four race is still open: AS Monaco FC 84%, Lille OSC 71%, Stade Rennais FC 1901 59%, Olympique Lyonnais 50%.
At the bottom, the biggest relegation risks are Le Havre AC 96%, Olympique de Marseille 68%, ES Troyes AC 40%, Le Mans FC 20%.
Odds for every team
| Team | Pts | P | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Monaco FC | 14 | 6 | 34% | 84% | <1% |
| Lille OSC | 13 | 6 | 23% | 71% | <1% |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 | 10 | 5 | 14% | 59% | <1% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC | 11 | 6 | 9% | 48% | <1% |
| Olympique Lyonnais | 11 | 6 | 8% | 50% | <1% |
| Paris FC | 11 | 6 | 7% | 43% | <1% |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 6 | 1% | 7% | 5% |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace | 7 | 5 | 1% | 11% | 4% |
| FC Lorient | 8 | 6 | 1% | 10% | 4% |
| Le Mans FC | 6 | 6 | <1% | 1% | 20% |
| OGC Nice | 5 | 5 | <1% | 3% | 17% |
| Racing Club de Lens | 7 | 6 | <1% | 6% | 7% |
| AJ Auxerre | 6 | 5 | <1% | 5% | 8% |
| Angers SCO | 7 | 6 | <1% | 3% | 10% |
| Toulouse FC | 6 | 6 | <1% | 1% | 20% |
| ES Troyes AC | 4 | 5 | <1% | <1% | 40% |
| Olympique de Marseille | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | 68% |
| Le Havre AC | 2 | 6 | <1% | <1% | 96% |
How this works: each remaining match is simulated 500 times, using every team's points per game so far with a small home-advantage adjustment; the percentages are how often a team finished in that position. “Bottom 3” is the three lowest places in every league, whatever the league's real relegation rules. These are statistical estimates, not betting advice. More on our models.
Full Ligue 1 table, fixtures and top scorers → · Latest round-up →