La Liga title race
Title, top-four and relegation odds · updated 11 October 2026
FC Barcelona are the favourites for the La Liga title at 65%. The realistic contenders are FC Barcelona (65%), Club Atlético de Madrid (14%), Real Madrid CF (10%) and Real Betis Balompié (10%).
The top-four race is still open: Club Atlético de Madrid 87%, Real Madrid CF 76%, Real Betis Balompié 73%, Sevilla FC 36%.
At the bottom, the biggest relegation risks are Málaga CF 86%, Valencia CF 68%, Elche CF 43%, Levante UD 26%.
Odds for every team
| Team | Pts | P | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona | 24 | 8 | 65% | 98% | <1% |
| Club Atlético de Madrid | 19 | 8 | 14% | 87% | <1% |
| Real Madrid CF | 18 | 8 | 10% | 76% | <1% |
| Real Betis Balompié | 16 | 7 | 10% | 73% | <1% |
| Sevilla FC | 13 | 7 | 1% | 36% | <1% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 10 | 7 | <1% | 8% | 1% |
| Athletic Club | 8 | 6 | <1% | 6% | 2% |
| Deportivo Alavés | 11 | 8 | <1% | 6% | 2% |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña | 10 | 7 | <1% | 5% | 1% |
| Villarreal CF | 8 | 8 | <1% | 1% | 10% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | 8 | 8 | <1% | <1% | 11% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 8 | 7 | <1% | 1% | 5% |
| Getafe CF | 8 | 8 | <1% | <1% | 12% |
| CA Osasuna | 8 | 7 | <1% | 1% | 5% |
| RC Celta de Vigo | 7 | 7 | <1% | <1% | 13% |
| Real Racing Club de Santander | 7 | 7 | <1% | <1% | 16% |
| Levante UD | 5 | 6 | <1% | <1% | 26% |
| Elche CF | 5 | 7 | <1% | <1% | 43% |
| Málaga CF | 4 | 8 | <1% | <1% | 86% |
| Valencia CF | 4 | 7 | <1% | <1% | 68% |
How this works: each remaining match is simulated 500 times, using every team's points per game so far with a small home-advantage adjustment; the percentages are how often a team finished in that position. “Bottom 3” is the three lowest places in every league, whatever the league's real relegation rules. These are statistical estimates, not betting advice. More on our models.
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