Premier League title race
Title, top-four and relegation odds · updated 11 October 2026
Manchester City FC are the favourites for the Premier League title at 55%. The realistic contenders are Manchester City FC (55%), Arsenal FC (25%) and Brighton & Hove Albion FC (11%).
The top-four race is still open: Arsenal FC 86%, Brighton & Hove Albion FC 62%, Liverpool FC 30%, Everton FC 29%.
At the bottom, the biggest relegation risks are Fulham FC 88%, Tottenham Hotspur FC 62%, AFC Bournemouth 52%, Coventry City FC 34%.
Odds for every team
| Team | Pts | P | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City FC | 15 | 5 | 55% | 94% | <1% |
| Arsenal FC | 15 | 6 | 25% | 86% | <1% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 13 | 6 | 11% | 62% | <1% |
| Everton FC | 9 | 5 | 2% | 29% | <1% |
| Liverpool FC | 9 | 5 | 2% | 30% | <1% |
| Leeds United FC | 9 | 6 | 1% | 15% | <1% |
| Brentford FC | 10 | 6 | 1% | 20% | <1% |
| Hull City AFC | 8 | 5 | 1% | 16% | <1% |
| Chelsea FC | 10 | 6 | 1% | 21% | <1% |
| Newcastle United FC | 8 | 5 | 1% | 16% | <1% |
| Ipswich Town FC | 9 | 6 | <1% | 9% | <1% |
| Manchester United FC | 6 | 6 | <1% | 1% | 5% |
| Nottingham Forest FC | 5 | 5 | <1% | 1% | 6% |
| Aston Villa FC | 5 | 6 | <1% | <1% | 13% |
| Crystal Palace FC | 4 | 5 | <1% | <1% | 12% |
| Sunderland AFC | 4 | 6 | <1% | <1% | 28% |
| AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 6 | <1% | <1% | 52% |
| Tottenham Hotspur FC | 3 | 6 | <1% | <1% | 62% |
| Coventry City FC | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | 34% |
| Fulham FC | 2 | 6 | <1% | <1% | 88% |
How this works: each remaining match is simulated 500 times, using every team's points per game so far with a small home-advantage adjustment; the percentages are how often a team finished in that position. “Bottom 3” is the three lowest places in every league, whatever the league's real relegation rules. These are statistical estimates, not betting advice. More on our models.
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