Primeira Liga title race
Title, top-four and relegation odds · updated 11 October 2026
FC Porto are the favourites for the Primeira Liga title at 75%. The realistic contenders are FC Porto (75%), CD Santa Clara (11%), Sport Lisboa e Benfica (7%) and Sporting Clube de Portugal (6%).
The top-four race is still open: Sport Lisboa e Benfica 74%, Sporting Clube de Portugal 71%, CD Santa Clara 70%, Académico de Viseu FC 34%.
At the bottom, the biggest relegation risks are GD Estoril Praia 98%, Casa Pia AC 67%, CD Nacional 49%, Rio Ave FC 47%.
Odds for every team
| Team | Pts | P | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 24 | 8 | 75% | 99% | <1% |
| CD Santa Clara | 18 | 8 | 11% | 70% | <1% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 16 | 7 | 7% | 74% | <1% |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal | 18 | 8 | 6% | 71% | <1% |
| Académico de Viseu FC | 14 | 8 | 1% | 34% | <1% |
| FC Arouca | 11 | 7 | 1% | 17% | <1% |
| Sporting Clube de Braga | 11 | 7 | <1% | 15% | <1% |
| Gil Vicente FC | 11 | 7 | <1% | 11% | <1% |
| CF Estrela da Amadora | 10 | 7 | <1% | 6% | <1% |
| FC Alverca | 8 | 7 | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| CS Marítimo | 8 | 8 | <1% | <1% | 4% |
| Moreirense FC | 8 | 8 | <1% | 1% | 6% |
| FC Famalicão | 7 | 7 | <1% | <1% | 6% |
| Vitória SC | 5 | 7 | <1% | <1% | 22% |
| CD Nacional | 4 | 7 | <1% | <1% | 49% |
| Rio Ave FC | 4 | 7 | <1% | <1% | 47% |
| Casa Pia AC | 4 | 8 | <1% | <1% | 67% |
| GD Estoril Praia | 2 | 8 | <1% | <1% | 98% |
How this works: each remaining match is simulated 500 times, using every team's points per game so far with a small home-advantage adjustment; the percentages are how often a team finished in that position. “Bottom 3” is the three lowest places in every league, whatever the league's real relegation rules. These are statistical estimates, not betting advice. More on our models.
Full Primeira Liga table, fixtures and top scorers → · Latest round-up →