Serie A title race
Title, top-four and relegation odds · updated 11 October 2026
FC Internazionale Milano are the favourites for the Serie A title at 33%. The realistic contenders are FC Internazionale Milano (33%), AS Roma (21%), SS Lazio (18%), Cagliari Calcio (10%) and AC Milan (8%).
The top-four race is still open: FC Internazionale Milano 79%, AS Roma 72%, SS Lazio 66%, Cagliari Calcio 57%.
At the bottom, the biggest relegation risks are Venezia FC >99%, Bologna FC 1909 73%, ACF Fiorentina 35%, Genoa CFC 28%.
Odds for every team
| Team | Pts | P | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano | 16 | 6 | 33% | 79% | <1% |
| AS Roma | 13 | 5 | 21% | 72% | <1% |
| SS Lazio | 13 | 5 | 18% | 66% | <1% |
| Cagliari Calcio | 12 | 5 | 10% | 57% | <1% |
| AC Milan | 11 | 5 | 8% | 45% | <1% |
| Como 1907 | 10 | 5 | 4% | 25% | <1% |
| Juventus FC | 10 | 5 | 4% | 31% | <1% |
| Frosinone Calcio | 10 | 6 | 1% | 10% | <1% |
| SSC Napoli | 10 | 6 | <1% | 10% | <1% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio | 7 | 5 | <1% | 3% | <1% |
| US Lecce | 6 | 5 | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Atalanta BC | 6 | 5 | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Udinese Calcio | 4 | 5 | <1% | <1% | 8% |
| Torino FC | 4 | 5 | <1% | <1% | 14% |
| AC Monza | 4 | 5 | <1% | <1% | 13% |
| Genoa CFC | 4 | 6 | <1% | <1% | 28% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 4 | 6 | <1% | <1% | 27% |
| ACF Fiorentina | 4 | 6 | <1% | <1% | 35% |
| Bologna FC 1909 | 2 | 5 | <1% | <1% | 73% |
| Venezia FC | 0 | 5 | <1% | <1% | >99% |
How this works: each remaining match is simulated 500 times, using every team's points per game so far with a small home-advantage adjustment; the percentages are how often a team finished in that position. “Bottom 3” is the three lowest places in every league, whatever the league's real relegation rules. These are statistical estimates, not betting advice. More on our models.
Full Serie A table, fixtures and top scorers → · Latest round-up →